Bernstein, once skeptical of Bitcoin, now predicts a rise to $150,000 by 2025, contingent on SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
Once a skeptic of Bitcoin, investment giant Bernstein has now joined the growing chorus of financial firms forecasting a bright future for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Bernstein’s latest research suggests that Bitcoin could potentially scale to an impressive $150,000 by 2025. The bullish stance pivots on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) green-lighting a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by early 2024.
The Role of a Potential Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes that SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF is likely to come through in the first quarter of 2024. This view aligns well with that of JP Morgan analysts, who recently posited a 90% likelihood of a Bitcoin ETF launching before January 10th. While Bernstein had dismissed Bitcoin as an investment vehicle back in 2018, the firm has been quietly keeping an eye on Bitcoin mining companies and published research on the mid-2022 crypto market ripple effects.
A Bitcoin ETF would represent a watershed moment for mainstream investors. For the first time, they could add Bitcoin to their portfolios through an SEC-regulated vehicle, a move that could significantly bolster Bitcoin’s market position. As it stands, the closest alternative is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which controls about 3% of the existing Bitcoin supply.
Factors Behind the Prediction
Bernstein’s $150,000 price target for Bitcoin is nothing short of audacious. It represents nearly a five-fold increase from the current price, which hovers around $34,000, and is more than double Bitcoin’s all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. The prediction comes in the wake of a rebound, with Bitcoin prices rallying to $35,000 last week—its highest since May 2022.
Investor optimism is building around the idea that the SEC could soon approve a Bitcoin ETF, especially following its decision not to appeal a court ruling in a lawsuit involving Grayscale. However, the regulatory landscape remains murky; SEC Chair Gary Gensler has been outspoken in his criticisms of the cryptocurrency sector. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF, therefore, is still not a guaranteed outcome.
Bernstein also highlights the Bitcoin “halving” event slated for 2024 as a key factor that could drive up prices. The halving will make Bitcoin mining more challenging, thereby weeding out inefficient players. Bernstein has even started coverage on multiple Bitcoin mining stocks, anticipating that those who endure will see substantial gains.