In an interview with NDL Finance, Richard Heart has stated that BTC might drop as low as $10,000 once the bull cycle ends. His analysis is based on historic market patterns, where BTC was usually followed by an 85% decrease. As for ETH, it usually drops by around 95% once the bull cycle ends.
Heart thoroughly explains how the market works during bull cycled. People buy BTC, then its price dips. People buy the dip and increase its price, then the price decreases again, and so on. Heart suggests that the recent BTC all-time high at around $66,000 could be the highest for BTC in this cycle. Heart is known for his accurate calls on the price of BTC, and he has been in the industry for many years now.
Once the trend reverses, the opposite could occur. Traders that doubled their profits could sell their BTC, and then some might buy the dip. Then, others might sell even more, and traders might buy the dip, and so on. This is likely to occur until BTC reaches around $10,000.
A counterargument of this analysis is that institutional investors already have their money invested in BTC like never before, implying that the price might not actually go as low as $10,000 when the market crashes. Furthermore, people have argued that the price of BTC cannot go below the cost of mining BTC.
However, Heart replies to these refutations by stating that the world’s richest people already have put their money on BTC. Since there is no one richer than these institutional investors, a dump in the price is imminent and inevitable. Once they remove the money, the decrease creates fear and causes the price to decline even more as there might be no one to HODL Bitcoin.
As for mining, he explains that the cost of mining is not fixed. The cost follows the price and not vice versa. Once BTC starts declining, the mining cost might reduce. Therefore, BTC could go as low as $10,000 as the mining cost also declines.
By the end of the interview, Heart brags about his predictions that have been extremely accurate so far, where he also predicted the timing of the cycles immaculately for both BTC and ETH.